Fed watchers are uncertain about whether the FOMC will cut by a quarter or half percentage-point in part because, as Chris notes, officials who spoke ahead of the central bank’s pre-decision quiet period didn’t offer a clear signal one way or the other.

Would Fed chair Jerome Powell opt for a measured, quarter percentage point change in rates, as he had for the last year? Or would he go big with a double-sized cut, signaling that the economy might be deteriorating faster than expected?

The move signals the end of the Federal Reserve's battle against runaway inflation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fed officials expressed divergent views on further action this year.