The IMF slightly raised its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing a surge in trade ahead of new US tariffs, but warned that persistent trade policy uncertainty and fiscal risks could dampen long-term recovery.

In its world economic outlook, the IMF lifted its U.S. growth estimate for 2025 to 1.9% and the 2026 forecast to 2%. That’s an increase of one-tenth of a percent this year and three-tenths of a percent next year. Tax incentives for corporate investment in the recent tax bill will also push growth slightly higher next year, the IMF said.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 slightly, citing stronger-than-expected purchases ahead of an August 1 jump in U.S. tariffs and a drop in the effective U.