We develop and quantify a novel growth theory in which economic activity endogenously shifts from material production to quality improvements. Consumers derive utility from goods with differing ...

We study a flexible class of trade models with international production networks and arbitrary wedge-like distortions like markups, tariffs, or nominal rigidities. We characterize the general ...

U.S. and European banking institutions were hit by a wave of distress in March 2023. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic reacted with an array of interventions, some targeting individual ...

This paper uses two large datasets built from quarterly labor force surveys to provide a global perspective on labor market downturns. The distribution of the severity and duration of labor market ...

We assess the efficacy of market-based systemic risk measures that rely on U.S. financial firms’ stock return co-movements with market- or sector-wide returns under stress from 1895 to 2023. Stress ...

We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February-March 2020 stock market crash induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as during the ...

The effects of macroprudential policy on portfolio flows vary considerably across the global financial cycle. A tighter ex-ante macroprudential stance amplifies the impact of global risk shocks on ...

In recent years, field experiments have reshaped policy worldwide, but scaling ideas remains a thorny challenge. Perhaps the most important issue facing policymakers today is deciding which ideas to ...

This disagreement reflects a 60-year history of misapplication of the neoclassical theory of investment to interpret empirical work and guide policy analysis. In this article I reconsider the ...

Using data on 2.5 million great-grandchildren linked to their great-grandfathers in the US (1850–1940), we show that economic gaps persisted strongly across four generations despite major structural ...

A college degree offers a pathway to economic mobility for low-income students. Using a multi-site randomized controlled trial combined with administrative and survey data, we demonstrate that ...

Using a regression discontinuity design and administrative data, we study a Danish policy that cut welfare benefits for refugees, increasing crime among affected individuals. Linking refugees to ...